Agriculture Futures Mixed – Fundamental Analytics

US agricultural futures were mixed during the beginning of 2025 due to reinforced supply and demand.

Wheat

Speculators anticipate bullish movement in 2025 for wheat

Wheat futures (May contracts) traded just above $6.0 per bushel as cold weather threatened crops in the Black Sea and US Plains region, raising concerns about tightening supplies.
Additionally, there was some relief that President Donald Trump had not yet announced tariffs on agricultural trade.
In February, the USDA unexpectedly cut domestic ending stocks for 2024/25 by 4 million bushels to 794 million, while global stocks fell by 1.3 million tons to 257.6 million, primarily due to downward revisions for China.
On the demand side, the USDA’s latest report showed that wheat export sales surged 45% from the prior four-week average to 569,600 tons in the week ending February 6.

Corn

Corn front month contract soars on amplified US exports

May corn futures retreated from a 1-year high, trading close to $5.05 per bushel, as tightening global supply and strong demand offset trade-related uncertainty.
Argentina’s drought-driven yield cuts and Brazil’s delayed planting are expected to lower global ending stocks by 3 million tons.
US ethanol production continues to exceed expectations, reinforcing domestic demand for corn feedstocks, while robust US exports, driven by strong foreign buying, have added further support.
However, downside risks remain, including the potential for increased Argentinian exports and uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policies, which could disrupt global trade flows.

Soybeans

Soybean prices hover between 10-10.5 range amid lower sales

May soybean futures hovered around $10.5 per bushel, nearing the one-month low of $10.3, amid a stronger USD and expectations of higher supply and decline in demand.
In Brazil, harvest progress continued, with 23% of the country’s massive soybean crop collected as of last week.
On the demand side, the latest USDA weekly report revealed a sharp 74% drop in soybean sales from the previous four-week average, totaling just 185k tons for the week ending February 6, well below the projected range of 300k-800k tons.
Investors now focus on President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, as well as ongoing negotiations toward a potential resolution of the war in Ukraine.