Commodity Market Update, June 6, 2018

Commodity News Update

June 5, 2018

The goal of this report is to provide our readers with some important fundamental and technical trends in commodity markets this week.

Energy Market Update:
US WTI Crude Oil Prices Drop

US WTI Crude Oil Prices have dropped from over $72 a barrel to $65 a barrel since May 25, partially because of the expectation of increased Crude Oil supplies from OPEC and Russia. See the chart below, where the black line represents 2018 prices.

The US WTI Crude Oil Price dropped more than the European Brent Crude Oil price, causing the spread between the August WTI Crude Oil Price and the August Brent Crude Oil to hit a record low of -$11, meaning US WTI Crude is priced $11 below European Brent Crude. Thus, there is an arbitrage opportunity for US Brent Crude to go to Europe. The chart below shows the drop in value of the August 2018 spread between May and June, represented by the black line.
Agriculture Market Update
Corn:

According to the latest Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) report, as of May 24, 2018, the Corn Accumulated Exports was 37,557,206 metric tons. The Total Accumulated Export chart below shows that, if the new trend continues, the Accumulated Exports could reach the record level of the 2017 market year (represented by the red line on the first chart below). World Demand for corn is strong and US corn prices are relatively low, encouraging foreign purchasing of US corn. See the charts below, where the black line represents the current market year.

Soybeans:

Similarly, according to the latest Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) report, the Soybeans Accumulated Exports was 46,088,141 metric tons. The Total Accumulated Exports chart below shows that exports are strong, although the seasonal trend tends to flatten during this coming period in the market year, so we do not expect Accumulated Exports to reach the level of 2017 (represented by the red line on the first chart below). However, as we mentioned above with corn, World Demand for soybeans is strong and US soybeans prices are relatively low, encouraging foreign purchasing of soybeans. See the charts below, where the black line represents the current market year.