US agricultural commodities were mixed due to increased geopolitical tensions and mixed fundamentals.
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Wheat futures hovered around $5.5 per bushel amid declining exports
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- Wheat futures fell below $5.5 per bushel, down from a recent one-month high of nearly $5.59 per bushel, which was driven by concerns over severe cold in some US wheat belts and persistent drought conditions in Argentina.
- Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat exports slowed significantly, as expected. In the first weeks of January, Russia shipped 0.9 million tons of wheat, down from 1.4 million in the same period in 2024, according to Sovecon data.
- Furthermore, the International Grains Council projected global production to reach a record 805 million tons in 2025/26, up 1% year-on-year, with 2024/25 production estimated at 796 million tons and consumption at 805 million tons.
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Corn surged to 1-year high due to constrained production
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- Corn futures climbed above $4.80 per bushel in January, marking their highest level in over a year as tightening US and global supplies drove prices higher.
- USDA’s January WASDE report highlighted a sharp drop in US production, down 456 million bushels, with ending stocks falling by 198 million.
- Globally, drought and high temperatures led to downward revisions for Argentina’s 2024/25 corn crop, further tightening the market. US production is now forecast at 14.9 million bushels, 276 million less than December’s estimate.
- Global corn stocks were revised down to 293.3 million tons, making maize supplies the tightest since the 2020/21 season.
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US soybean prices pressured as competition abounds
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- Soybean futures traded around $10.60 per bushel, down from a six-month peak of $10.67 hit on January 21st, as anticipated favorable weather conditions in top producer Brazil tempered concerns about supplies.
- According to Commodity Weather Group, southern Brazil and Paraguay could see relief next week, with dry conditions in northern Brazil aiding the early harvest, though wet weather is set to return.
- Additional support for prices came from a subdued dollar and the absence of immediate US tariffs on major buyer China.
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