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December Corn futures rose to $4.20 per bushel, reaching a two-week high amid strong demand and supply concerns. Export demand remained robust (Figure 1), underscored by a USDA sale announcement of 3.9 million bushels for the current marketing year. Average weekly exports for October reported an additional +47% compared to same month last year. Furthermore, corn exports climbed to 164.7 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. That was also above the entire range of analyst estimates, which came in between 106.3 million and 163.4 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year remain moderately ahead of last year’s pace so far after reaching 234.9 million bushels. |
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Figure 1: December CBOT corn, weekly corn exports (yearly change) The weekly EIA petroleum status report indicated that ethanol production reached 1.081 million barrels per day for the week ending October 23, an increase of 39,000 bpd from the previous week, while stocks declined by 52,000 barrels to 22.223 million. Current estimates show that corn bushels used for ethanol production are slightly below the USDA’s target of 5.45 billion bushels for 2024-25, however, ethanol production typically peaks in the summer when driving demand is highest. Additionally, supply disruptions in Ukraine and the Middle East further impact the market, with concerns over exports from the Black Sea region contributing to global supply constraints and subsequent price increases. Nevertheless, demand worries remain at market’s participants on the long term, while a modest upward revision in average yields to 183.8 bushels per acre also adds to a mix outlook. Meanwhile, grain bagging has emerged as a popular storage option, allowing farmers to hold corn during this oversupply period and capitalize on carry returns. Declining farm incomes since 2022, exacerbated by low crop prices, have left many farmers facing tighter margins.
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